Within Uncertainty
Why Uncertainty Creates a Search for Someone to Blame
Assigning responsibility can reduce discomfort when complex events seem confusing or uncontrollable.
On this page
- Control and emotional compensation
- Hidden agents and simplified causes
- Costs of misplaced blame
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Introduction
When people face events that are frightening, confusing or difficult to explain, they often begin searching for someone to blame. This response is not simply a moral judgement about responsibility. Psychologically, blame attribution can function as a way of reducing uncertainty. A complex event with many interacting causes is uncomfortable because it leaves questions unanswered. Identifying a person, group or hidden actor creates a clearer story, restores a sense of order and provides emotional relief, even when the explanation is incomplete or wrong. Research in psychology, history and political behaviour shows that uncertainty frequently increases the appeal of blame-centred narratives, making them an important mechanism in the spread of myths, misconceptions and conspiracy beliefs. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re… [Frontiers]frontiersin.orgFrontiersCulturally Grounded Scapegoating in Response to Illness…by Q Yang · 2021 · Cited by 19 — Our present model draws on current r…
Within the broader relationship between emotion and myth acceptance, blame seeking is distinctive because it transforms uncertainty into a human drama. Instead of asking what happened, people begin asking who caused it.
How Blame Creates a Feeling of Control
Uncertain situations often produce anxiety because they expose the limits of prediction and control. Natural disasters, disease outbreaks, economic crises and sudden social changes can leave people feeling powerless. One psychological response is to identify a responsible agent. Even negative explanations can feel preferable to uncertainty because they replace randomness with intentionality. [Frontiers]frontiersin.orgFrontiersCulturally Grounded Scapegoating in Response to Illness…by Q Yang · 2021 · Cited by 19 — Our present model draws on current r…
Research on scapegoating suggests that blame can serve a control-maintenance function. When individuals experience a lack of personal control, assigning responsibility to a person or group can create the impression that events are understandable and therefore manageable. The emotional reward comes not from solving the problem but from replacing ambiguity with certainty. [Frontiers]frontiersin.orgFrontiersCulturally Grounded Scapegoating in Response to Illness…by Q Yang · 2021 · Cited by 19 — Our present model draws on current r…
This helps explain why myths often feature clear villains. A story with an identifiable culprit is easier to understand than one involving chance, systemic complexity or multiple interacting causes. Human cognition generally prefers causal stories with agents rather than diffuse explanations involving institutions, probabilities or historical processes. [Wikipedia]WikipediaFundamental attribution errorMay 4, 2003 — In social psychology, the fundamental attribution error is a cognitive attribution bias in which observers underemphasize s…
Hidden Agents and Simplified Causes
One of the most common patterns in uncertainty-driven blame attribution is the search for hidden actors. When events appear disproportionate to visible causes, people may infer that unseen groups or secret intentions are responsible.
Conspiracy theories frequently operate through this mechanism. Economic crises, political upheavals or public health emergencies can generate uncertainty that encourages people to attribute events to coordinated actions by powerful groups. Such explanations reduce ambiguity by turning complicated events into deliberate schemes. Rather than accepting that multiple factors contributed to an outcome, conspiracy narratives offer a single, emotionally satisfying cause. [ResearchGate]researchgate.netSpecifically, we examined whether activating chronically…Read more… [Cambridge University Press & Assessment]cambridge.orgUniversity Press & Assessment Is Belief in Conspiracy Theories Pathological?A Survey Experiment…April 8, 2015 —… belief in conspiracy theories has historically enabled scapegoating and political violence.Foo…
Several features make these explanations psychologically attractive:
- They provide a clear causal chain.
- They identify specific actors to hold responsible.
- They imply that events are controllable because someone intended them.
- They transform uncertainty into certainty, even if the certainty is misplaced.
This process is particularly visible when official explanations are incomplete or evolving. During periods when experts openly acknowledge uncertainty, conspiracy narratives may gain appeal because they appear to offer more decisive answers. [Sage Journals]journals.sagepub.comSage JournalsDiscursive representations of blame for COVID-19 and its…by J Matthews · 2024 · Cited by 11 — Our study adopts a longitud…
Historical Patterns of Scapegoating During Crises
History provides repeated examples of uncertainty leading to misplaced blame. Epidemics are especially revealing because disease outbreaks combine fear, limited information and high emotional stakes.
Studies of historical pandemics show that outbreaks have often been accompanied by the scapegoating of minorities, foreigners or marginalised groups. During periods when the causes of disease were poorly understood, accusations against identifiable groups helped communities impose order on frightening events. The resulting narratives frequently reflected existing social tensions rather than actual evidence. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re… [Economics Observatory]economicsobservatory.compast plagues why did some create conflict while others promoted cohesionPast plagues: why did some create conflict while others…21 Jan 2021 — Many studies document that past pandemics resulted in the scapeg…
The pattern has appeared across different eras:
- Medieval plague outbreaks were often linked to accusations against minority communities.
- Nineteenth-century disease outbreaks frequently generated blame directed at immigrant populations.
- Modern pandemics have produced new forms of ethnic and national scapegoating despite vastly improved scientific knowledge. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re… [2queensu.ca]queensu.caContagion CulturesRacism, Scapegoating, and Blame in…4 Nov 2020 — There is a long historical tradition of blaming foreigners or racialized groups for th…
Researchers studying epidemic responses note that blame serves a psychological purpose. It offers a narrative that explains suffering and identifies a target for anger. However, the emotional usefulness of a narrative does not make it accurate. [las.illinois.edu]las.illinois.eduwhat drives us blame marginalized epidemicsWhat drives us to blame the marginalized for epidemics?22 Apr 2020 — Historically, blaming the marginalized in society served the purpose…
Why Blame Often Targets Groups Rather Than Systems
A notable feature of uncertainty-driven blame is that it tends to focus on people rather than systems. Complex events often arise from interacting institutions, incentives, environmental conditions and historical processes. Yet these explanations are cognitively demanding and emotionally unsatisfying.
Attribution research has long shown that people frequently overemphasise personal causes while underestimating situational factors. This tendency, sometimes called the fundamental attribution error, makes individual actors appear more responsible than broader circumstances. [Wikipedia]WikipediaFundamental attribution errorMay 4, 2003 — In social psychology, the fundamental attribution error is a cognitive attribution bias in which observers underemphasize s…
Under uncertainty, this bias can become stronger because personal explanations are easier to understand. A story about corrupt leaders, dangerous outsiders or malicious elites feels more concrete than a discussion of systemic failures, statistical probabilities or unintended consequences.
As a result, myths and misconceptions often condense large-scale events into narratives centred on a few supposedly responsible actors. Such stories provide emotional clarity but can obscure the real causes of problems. [ResearchGate]researchgate.netSpecifically, we examined whether activating chronically…Read more…
The Costs of Misplaced Blame
Although blame attribution can reduce psychological discomfort, it carries significant social costs when it becomes detached from evidence.
Misplaced blame can encourage:
- Prejudice against minority groups.
- Distrust of institutions and experts.
- Political polarisation.
- Harassment or violence against perceived culprits.
- Resistance to effective solutions because attention shifts away from actual causes. [queensu.ca]queensu.caContagion CulturesRacism, Scapegoating, and Blame in…4 Nov 2020 — There is a long historical tradition of blaming foreigners or racialized groups for th… [Sage Journals]journals.sagepub.comSage JournalsDiscursive representations of blame for COVID-19 and its…by J Matthews · 2024 · Cited by 11 — Our study adopts a longitud…
There is also a practical cost. When societies adopt inaccurate explanations, resources may be directed towards punishing imagined offenders rather than addressing genuine problems. Historical studies of epidemics repeatedly show that scapegoating often worsened social conflict while doing little to stop disease transmission. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re…
In the context of misinformation, blame-centred narratives can spread rapidly because they are emotionally engaging. Stories that identify villains are easier to remember, share and defend than explanations that acknowledge uncertainty and complexity. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re…
Why Accurate Explanations Often Feel Less Satisfying
A central tension in the psychology of uncertainty is that accurate explanations are not always emotionally satisfying. Real-world events frequently involve incomplete information, multiple causes and unresolved questions. Scientific and historical explanations often include qualifications, probabilities and competing interpretations.
Blame-based myths offer something different: closure. They replace ambiguity with certainty and complexity with a clear moral narrative. That emotional advantage helps explain why such narratives remain attractive even when evidence is weak. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re…
Understanding blame attribution as a response to uncertainty does not mean that responsibility is never real or important. Rather, it highlights a recurring psychological pattern: when people feel threatened by ambiguity, they often seek identifiable culprits before they have fully understood the event itself. This search for blame can provide temporary emotional comfort, but it can also become a pathway through which myths, misconceptions and conspiracy beliefs gain their persuasive power. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroupsPMCNovember 20, 2024 —… uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats… A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re… [Frontiers]frontiersin.orgFrontiersCulturally Grounded Scapegoating in Response to Illness…by Q Yang · 2021 · Cited by 19 — Our present model draws on current r…
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Endnotes
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Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Title: PMCConspiracy beliefs and negative attitudes towards outgroups
Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11578531/Source snippet
PMCNovember 20, 2024 —... uncertainty, driving the search for scapegoats... A dual-motive model of scapegoating: Displacing blame to re...
Published: November 20, 2024
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Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7430734/Source snippet
liefs... a scapegoat) may not restore control, or do so to a lesser extent...
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Source: las.illinois.edu
Title: what drives us blame marginalized epidemics
Link: https://las.illinois.edu/news/2020-04-22/what-drives-us-blame-marginalized-epidemicsSource snippet
What drives us to blame the marginalized for epidemics?22 Apr 2020 — Historically, blaming the marginalized in society served the purpose...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: Fundamental attribution error
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_errorSource snippet
May 4, 2003 — In social psychology, the fundamental attribution error is a cognitive attribution bias in which observers underemphasize s...
Published: May 4, 2003
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Source: researchgate.net
Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222627187_Causal_uncertainty_and_correction_of_judgmentsSource snippet
Specifically, we examined whether activating chronically...Read more...
-
Source: researchgate.net
Title: Research Gate Conspiracy blaming in the aftermath of group relative deprivation
Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382547413_Conspiracy_blaming_in_the_aftermath_of_group_relative_deprivation_The_moderating_role_of_national_narcissismSource snippet
ResearchGateConspiracy blaming in the aftermath of group relative deprivationJuly 8, 2024 — Conspiracy beliefs entail a scapegoating func...
Published: July 8, 2024
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Source: cambridge.org
Title: University Press & Assessment Is Belief in Conspiracy Theories Pathological?
Link: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/is-belief-in-conspiracy-theories-pathological-a-survey-experiment-on-the-cognitive-roots-of-extreme-suspicion/4EA665C2D2AF60F3165243D4177F474ESource snippet
A Survey Experiment...April 8, 2015 —... belief in conspiracy theories has historically enabled scapegoating and political violence.Foo...
Published: April 8, 2015
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Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Title: PMCEpidemics, pandemics, and social conflict
Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8633882/Source snippet
PMC - NIHby R Jedwab · 2021 · Cited by 107 — We discuss existing theories as well as historical and quantitative studies, and highlight t...
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Cambridge University Press & AssessmentThe Politics of Pandemic Othering: Putting COVID-19 in...by KY Dionne · 2020 · Cited by 300 — Chi...
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Title: Contagion Cultures
Link: https://www.queensu.ca/alumni/events/contagion-cultures-racism-scapegoating-and-blame-in-the-history-of-epidemicsSource snippet
Racism, Scapegoating, and Blame in...4 Nov 2020 — There is a long historical tradition of blaming foreigners or racialized groups for th...
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Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12562285/Source snippet
PMCby H Li · 2025 — Prior work has mostly examined how the quantity of moral and emotional words shapes diffusion, while largely overlook...
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Source: frontiersin.org
Link: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.632641/fullSource snippet
FrontiersCulturally Grounded Scapegoating in Response to Illness...by Q Yang · 2021 · Cited by 19 — Our present model draws on current r...
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Source: journals.sagepub.com
Link: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/17504813231219458Source snippet
Sage JournalsDiscursive representations of blame for COVID-19 and its...by J Matthews · 2024 · Cited by 11 — Our study adopts a longitud...
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Source: economicsobservatory.com
Title: past plagues why did some create conflict while others promoted cohesion
Link: https://www.economicsobservatory.com/past-plagues-why-did-some-create-conflict-while-others-promoted-cohesionSource snippet
Past plagues: why did some create conflict while others...21 Jan 2021 — Many studies document that past pandemics resulted in the scapeg...
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Source: journals.sagepub.com
Link: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00332941251372867Source snippet
the Link Between COVID-19 Conspiracy Beliefs and...September 1, 2025 — However, the problem with this variant of the scapegoating approa...
Published: September 1, 2025
Additional References
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Title: scapegoating of religious minorities during covid 19 is history repeating itself
Link: https://www.ids.ac.uk/opinions/scapegoating-of-religious-minorities-during-covid-19-is-history-repeating-itself/Source snippet
Scapegoating of religious minorities during Covid-1929 Jun 2020 — The spread of Covid-19 becomes a self-reinforcing concentric circle of...
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Title: Conspiratorial thinking, according to researchers, is really about
Link: https://www.facebook.com/viceuk/posts/conspiratorial-thinking-according-to-researchers-is-really-about-coping-learning/1265250085473071/Source snippet
scapegoats that can be blamed for the crisis. There is an absurd... conspiracy theories include anxiety, uncertainty, or the feeling tha...
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Source: youtube.com
Title: The Scapegoat Trap: How to Transfer Blame Without Being Detected
Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76wsBVTeG_8Source snippet
Psychology of scapegoating and blame The Scapegoat Trap: How to Transfer Blame Without Being Detected Psychology of Power Studio...
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the Spread: How Blame Attributions Drive...by I Danatzis · 2023 · Cited by 33 — Specifically, it is the first to provide experimental ev...
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Source: pure.port.ac.uk
Title: port.ac.uk What to blame?
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Self-serving attribution bias with multi-...by A Coutts · Cited by 17 — With multi-dimensional uncertainty, while the distinction betwee...
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biases and trust in a physical coordination taskby CP Hsiung · 2023 · Cited by 7 — These findings suggest that environmental uncertainty...
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Source: sciencedirect.com
Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001691826007602Source snippet
How uncertainty avoidance moderates satisfaction with...by KP Chong · 2026 — This study investigates automaticity attribution bias (AAB)...
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A methodological commentary on qualitative social media...by M Roy · 2025 — Sociologists, anthropologists and historians have long shown...
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blaming in the aftermath of group relative deprivation...July 24, 2024 — In some cases, conspiracy beliefs and scapegoating co-occur whe...
Published: July 24, 2024
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