Can Honest Uncertainty Build More Public Trust?

Introduction

Public acceptance of myths and misinformation is often rooted in emotional discomfort with uncertainty and a craving for clear, oversimplified narratives. Addressing these emotional drivers requires not just correcting false statements but communicating honestly about what is known and what remains uncertain. Growing research in science and risk communication suggests that transparent uncertainty communication does not typically erode trust or fuel myths; in fact, when done well it can reduce acceptance of simplistic myths by fostering epistemic resilience and credibility. This page reviews key evidence and practical implications for communicators seeking to lower myth acceptance through honest uncertainty dialogue. [Royal Society Publishing]royalsocietypublishing.orgRoyal Society PublishingCommunicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and scienceby AM van der Bles · 2019 · Cited by 560 — Our aim is t…

Why Vague Reassurance Can Fail

One of the persistent assumptions in public communication — especially around science, health, and risk — is that uncertainty should be hidden because audiences dislike ambiguity. Communicators have often simplified complex findings to maintain clarity or to avoid confusion. However, empirical work challenges that assumption. In systematic experiments, openly communicating uncertainty — for example, numerical ranges around estimates — only slightly affected trust and did not substantially undermine it, even on contested topics such as climate change or immigration statistics. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govCommunication of Scientific Uncertainty Affects Trust in Science-A Systematic Review - PubMedFULL TEXT LINKS Wiley Full text links ACTION…

Over‑simplified assurances can paradoxically backfire when facts change: audiences later feel misled if previously unstated uncertainties emerge. Early transparency about limitations and unknowns can protect trust when evidence evolves. In health communication, studies suggest that uncertainty communication can mitigate long‑term distrust that arises when prior overconfidence is revealed as unwarranted. [Undark Magazine]undark.orgMagazine Interview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public HealthUndark MagazineInterview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public Health…May 10, 2024 — 10 May 2024 — A new study suggests that scientists sh…Published: May 10, 2024

Moreover, not all forms of uncertainty communication produce the same effects. Research reviews find that communicating technical uncertainty (quantified ranges or probabilities) tends to have neutral or positive effects on perceived credibility, while conveying consensus uncertainty (highlighting expert disagreement) can reduce confidence in the message. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govCommunication of Scientific Uncertainty Affects Trust in Science-A Systematic Review - PubMedFULL TEXT LINKS Wiley Full text links ACTION…

Explaining Limits of Current Knowledge

Being explicit about what is not known — and why — helps audiences form more accurate mental models of a topic. Psychological research on misinformation shows that false beliefs persist not merely because of lack of facts, but because people fill gaps with comforting, high‑emotion narratives when they perceive experts are uncertain or hiding uncertainty. Transparent uncertainty communication counters this by:

• Signalling honesty and trustworthiness: Communicating ranges, caveats, and limitations can signal that the communicator is not overselling certainty and respects the audience’s agency. Many studies show this does not systematically erode trust and can enhance credibility over the long term. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govCommunication of Scientific Uncertainty Affects Trust in Science-A Systematic Review - PubMedFULL TEXT LINKS Wiley Full text links ACTION…
• Generating realistic expectations: Audiences understand that science and knowledge are iterative. When uncertainty is disclosed early, changes to advice or estimates seem less like flip‑flops and more like the natural evolution of evidence. [Undark Magazine]undark.orgMagazine Interview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public HealthUndark MagazineInterview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public Health…May 10, 2024 — 10 May 2024 — A new study suggests that scientists sh…Published: May 10, 2024
• Reducing affective closure pressure: Knowing the bounds of knowledge can reduce emotional pressure to latch onto simplistic myths that claim certainty, because people feel less compelled to resolve ambiguity prematurely. While explicit tests on myth acceptance are still emerging, frameworks for reducing belief in misinformation — such as fostering accurate perceptions of evidence strength — align with this dynamic. [psycharchives.org]psycharchives.orgHow does uncertainty communication affect people's trust?March 11, 2025 — by C Dries · 2025 — In this talk, I will present several experimental studies that we have conducted to determine under…Published: March 11, 2025

Importantly, uncertainty communication should be context‑sensitive. Transparent but inaccessible explanations may confuse rather than inform; effective messages clarify both what is uncertain and why that uncertainty matters (or doesn’t) for decisions. [Undark Magazine]undark.orgMagazine Interview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public HealthUndark MagazineInterview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public Health…May 10, 2024 — 10 May 2024 — A new study suggests that scientists sh…Published: May 10, 2024

Actionable Guidance During Uncertainty

For communicators aiming to reduce myth acceptance through honest uncertainty communication, evidence supports several practical approaches:

• Use quantified uncertainty when possible: Numerical ranges or probabilities (e.g., confidence intervals) are generally perceived as more credible and less likely to erode trust than vague verbal qualifiers like “might” or “possibly”. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govCommunication of Scientific Uncertainty Affects Trust in Science-A Systematic Review - PubMedFULL TEXT LINKS Wiley Full text links ACTION…
• Explicitly differentiate uncertainty types: Clarify whether uncertainty arises from measurement error, incomplete data, or evolving theory, and whether experts agree on a general direction even if the precise magnitude is unknown. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govCommunication of Scientific Uncertainty Affects Trust in Science-A Systematic Review - PubMedFULL TEXT LINKS Wiley Full text links ACTION…
• Frame uncertainty as part of rigorous inquiry: Position uncertainty not as ignorance, but as an integral quality control in the knowledge‑generation process. This aligns public expectations with how evidence evolves and diminishes room for myths that exploit perceived gaps. [Royal Society Publishing]royalsocietypublishing.orgRoyal Society PublishingCommunicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and scienceby AM van der Bles · 2019 · Cited by 560 — Our aim is t…
• Pair uncertainty transparency with clear actionable information: When people understand what is unknown, offering guidance on what the evidence does support helps anchor decisions without needing oversimplified assurances. [Nuffield Foundation]nuffieldfoundation.orgNuffield FoundationCommunicating uncertainty in data without undermining trustThis project aims to identify a range of methods to communi…
• Tailor messages to audience beliefs: Some research indicates that people’s prior beliefs affect how they interpret communicated uncertainty; messages may be more effective when they acknowledge and engage with these beliefs rather than ignoring them. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCThe effect of uncertainty communication on public trustPMCby C Dries · 2025 · Cited by 10 — Our results show that people's trust response to the communication of uncertainty depends on how con…

These strategies aim to build epistemic trustworthiness — the kind of trust rooted in consistent and honest communication — rather than short‑term credibility contingent on avoiding difficult questions.

Summary

Honest uncertainty communication — when carefully crafted — can help reduce the emotional drivers that make myths appealing. Rather than undermining trust, openness about evidence limits often sustains long‑term credibility and helps audiences build nuanced, resilient understanding. Clear explanations of what is known and what is not reduce the need for simple but misleading narratives by giving people a realistic framework to interpret new information and guard against emotionally charged myths. [Royal Society Publishing]royalsocietypublishing.orgRoyal Society PublishingCommunicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and scienceby AM van der Bles · 2019 · Cited by 560 — Our aim is t…

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Endnotes

1. Source: undark.org
   Title: Magazine Interview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public Health
   Link: https://undark.org/2024/05/10/interview-uncertainty-science-communication/
   Source snippet

   Undark MagazineInterview: Uncertainty, Science, and Public Health...May 10, 2024 — 10 May 2024 — A new study suggests that scientists sh...

   Published: May 10, 2024

2. Source: psycharchives.org
   Title: How does uncertainty communication affect people’s trust?
   Link: https://www.psycharchives.org/en/item/46ac5c8b-da8e-4489-8417-8d2bacb84202
   Source snippet

   March 11, 2025 — by C Dries · 2025 — In this talk, I will present several experimental studies that we have conducted to determine under...

   Published: March 11, 2025

3. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Title: PMCThe effect of uncertainty communication on public trust
   Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11925018/
   Source snippet

   PMCby C Dries · 2025 · Cited by 10 — Our results show that people's trust response to the communication of uncertainty depends on how con...

4. Source: royalsocietypublishing.org
   Link: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/6/5/181870/95102/Communicating-uncertainty-about-facts-numbers-and
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   Royal Society PublishingCommunicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and scienceby AM van der Bles · 2019 · Cited by 560 — Our aim is t...

5. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42014938/
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   Communication of Scientific Uncertainty Affects Trust in Science-A Systematic Review - PubMedFULL TEXT LINKS Wiley Full text links ACTION...

6. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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   PubMedThe effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers - PubMedApril 7, 2020...

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7. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Title: Pub Med A review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication
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   PubMedA review of the effects of uncertainty in public science communication - PubMedJuly 17, 2020...

   Published: July 17, 2020

8. Source: nuffieldfoundation.org
   Link: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/communicating-uncertainty-in-data-without-undermining-trust
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   Nuffield FoundationCommunicating uncertainty in data without undermining trustThis project aims to identify a range of methods to communi...

9. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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   uncertainty about facts, numbers and science - PubMedMay 8, 2019 — ABSTRACT Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an e...

   Published: May 8, 2019

Additional References

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   Chapter: 6 Impacts of Misinformation About ScienceThese findings are particularly relevant to understanding misinformation's effects in t...

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   Published: March 5, 2025

4. Source: carnegieendowment.org
   Link: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/research/2024/01/countering-disinformation-effectively-an-evidence-based-policy-guide
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