Why Outbreak Rumours Need Origin Stories

Introduction

Rumours about disease outbreaks often succeed because they answer a question that people urgently want resolved: where did the disease come from? When a correction simply says that a secret plot, deliberate release, or hidden actor was not responsible, it can leave an explanatory gap. Research on misinformation shows that people are more likely to abandon a false claim when they are offered a coherent alternative account that explains the same events. In the context of outbreaks, that replacement story is often a natural-cause narrative built from genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and transmission data. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCThe role of discomfort in the continued influence effectPMCby MW Susmann · 2021 · Cited by 90 — The present research tested the prediction that retractions of misinformation produce feelings of… Springer Natural-cause explanations do not work because they are reassuring. They work when they are evidence-based and capable of answering the same [link.springer.com]link.springer.comfactors that mitigate the continued influence of…by IP Kan · 2021 · Cited by 27 — The term “continued influence effect” (CIE) refers t… questions that rumours attempt to answer: how a pathogen emerged, how it entered human populations, and why the outbreak spread when and where it did.

Why Secret-Plot Claims Feel Coherent

Conspiracy theories about outbreaks frequently provide a complete narrative structure. They identify a cause, assign responsibility, and explain consequences in a single story. Even when the evidence is weak, the story can feel psychologically satisfying because it removes uncertainty.

A correction that only says, “there is no evidence of a deliberate release,” may fail to replace that structure. People are still left asking why the outbreak began. Studies of the continued influence effect show that misinformation can continue shaping judgement even after correction, particularly when no alternative explanation fills the gap. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCThe role of discomfort in the continued influence effectPMCby MW Susmann · 2021 · Cited by 90 — The present research tested the prediction that retractions of misinformation produce feelings of… Springer Disease outbreaks are especially vulnerable to this pattern because emergence events are often complex. A natural origin may involve wildlife [link.springer.com]link.springer.comfactors that mitigate the continued influence of…by IP Kan · 2021 · Cited by 27 — The term “continued influence effect” (CIE) refers t… reservoirs, ecological change, cross-species transmission, and a period of undetected spread before authorities recognise a new disease. Compared with a simple allegation of intentional action, the real explanation can initially appear fragmented or incomplete.

This creates a communication challenge. Public health agencies must do more than reject unsupported claims. They must show how available evidence fits together into a plausible and understandable account of events.

How Genetic Evidence Supports Alternative Accounts

Genetic sequencing provides one of the most powerful tools for constructing origin stories grounded in evidence. Every time a pathogen reproduces, small mutations accumulate. By comparing genomes collected from different places and times, scientists can reconstruct relationships between strains and estimate how transmission unfolded.

For emerging infectious diseases, this approach often reveals links to pathogens already circulating in animal populations. Zoonotic spillover—the movement of a pathogen from animals into humans—is a well-established mechanism behind many emerging diseases. Reviews of outbreak biology estimate that a large proportion of emerging human infectious diseases have animal origins. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCThe role of discomfort in the continued influence effectPMCby MW Susmann · 2021 · Cited by 90 — The present research tested the prediction that retractions of misinformation produce feelings of…

Genetic evidence serves an important narrative function because it provides a concrete alternative to speculation. Instead of merely stating that a pathogen was not engineered or deliberately introduced, researchers can show:

These findings create a causal chain that is often more detailed than the rumours they replace. The resulting explanation is not simply “it happened naturally,” but rather a specific account of how biological processes produced the outbreak.

COVID-19 as a Case Study in Competing Narratives

The debate over the origins of COVID-19 illustrates why replacement stories matter. Competing explanations emerged almost immediately, including claims of deliberate creation, laboratory escape, and natural zoonotic emergence.

Scientific investigation focused heavily on genetic evidence, environmental sampling, epidemiological data, and known patterns of coronavirus evolution. Reviews of the evidence have consistently found substantial support for a zoonotic pathway involving animal-to-human transmission, while acknowledging that some uncertainties remain because crucial historical data are incomplete. ScienceDirect [New England Journal of Medicine]nejm.orgNew England Journal of MedicineThe Origins of Covid-19 — Why It Matters (and…by LO Gostin · 2023 · Cited by 80 — The two major hypothe…

The World Health Organization’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens reported in 2025 that available evidence points most strongly toward zoonotic spillover, while also noting that not all questions can yet be definitively resolved because some information remains unavailable. [World Health Organization]who.intSource details in endnotes. [World Health Organization]who.intSource details in endnotes.

What matters for misinformation correction is not that every detail has been settled. It is that investigators can present an evidence-based pathway linking animal hosts, viral evolution, environmental conditions, and human transmission. That account gives people a scientifically grounded explanation rather than leaving a vacuum that rumours can fill.

How Transmission Timelines Make Corrections Clearer

Genetics alone rarely resolves outbreak origins. Transmission timelines provide another critical part of the replacement story.

When investigators reconstruct an outbreak, they examine:

These timelines help explain why infections appeared where they did and how they moved through populations.

A transmission timeline can transform a correction from a simple denial into a coherent narrative. Instead of saying that a claim about a deliberate release lacks evidence, investigators can show that infections appeared gradually, spread through identifiable networks, and followed patterns consistent with known disease dynamics.

This type of reconstruction helps people understand cause and effect. The outbreak becomes a sequence of observable events rather than a mystery requiring hidden actors.

Why Uncertainty Does Not Automatically Validate Rumours

Outbreak investigations often begin with incomplete information. Scientists may not immediately identify an animal host, the exact spillover event, or the first infected person. Rumours frequently exploit these gaps by presenting certainty where evidence is still developing.

However, uncertainty is not evidence for any particular alternative explanation. The absence of complete knowledge about an outbreak’s origin does not automatically support claims of conspiracy, deliberate release, or cover-up.

The WHO’s framework for investigating pathogen origins explicitly recognises that origin tracing is a gradual process requiring evidence from multiple disciplines, including epidemiology, laboratory science, ecology, and genomics. Investigations may narrow possibilities long before they can answer every question. [World Health Organization]who.intSource details in endnotes.

A natural-cause narrative therefore does not require perfect certainty. It requires a body of evidence that consistently points toward a plausible mechanism and explains observed facts better than competing claims.

Why Origin Stories Improve Public Understanding

The most effective corrections answer the question that generated the rumour in the first place. In outbreak settings, that question is usually not whether a specific claim is false. It is where the disease came from and how it spread.

Natural-cause narratives help because they provide explanatory completeness. They connect wildlife reservoirs, genetic evolution, spillover events, early transmission chains, and population spread into a single account. When supported by genetic and epidemiological evidence, these narratives give people a framework for understanding the outbreak without relying on unsupported speculation. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCThe role of discomfort in the continued influence effectPMCby MW Susmann · 2021 · Cited by 90 — The present research tested the prediction that retractions of misinformation produce feelings of… Springer The broader lesson for myths and misconceptions is that corrections work best when they replace faulty explanations rather than merely removi [link.springer.com]link.springer.comfactors that mitigate the continued influence of…by IP Kan · 2021 · Cited by 27 — The term “continued influence effect” (CIE) refers t… ng them. In disease outbreaks, evidence-based origin stories fill the gap that rumours would otherwise occupy, making scientific explanations more understandable, memorable, and resilient.

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Further Reading

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Endnotes

1. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Title: PMCThe role of discomfort in the continued influence effect
   Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8447889/
   Source snippet

   PMCby MW Susmann · 2021 · Cited by 90 — The present research tested the prediction that retractions of misinformation produce feelings of...

2. Source: link.springer.com
   Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41235-021-00335-9
   Source snippet

   factors that mitigate the continued influence of...by IP Kan · 2021 · Cited by 27 — The term “continued influence effect” (CIE) refers t...

3. Source: link.springer.com
   Link: https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13421-023-01402-w
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   SpringerThe impact of misinformation corrections on source perceptionsby V Westbrook · 2023 · Cited by 26 — Research on the continued inf...

4. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8182890/
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   PMCZoonotic spillover: Understanding basic aspects for better...by JH Ellwanger · 2021 · Cited by 319 — The transmission of pathogens fr...

5. Source: sciencedirect.com
   Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867421009910
   Source snippet

   ScienceDirectThe origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical reviewby EC Holmes · 2021 · Cited by 758 — Evidence supporting a zoonotic origin of se...

6. Source: who.int
   Link: https://www.who.int/news/item/27-06-2025-who-scientific-advisory-group-issues-report-on-origins-of-covid-19

7. Source: who.int
   Link: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/independent-assessment-of-the-origins-of-sars-cov-2-from-the-scientific-advisory-group-for-the-origins-of-novel-pathogens
   Source snippet

   World Health OrganizationIndependent assessment of the origins of SARS‑CoV‑2This current review is an independent assessment of the origi...

8. Source: who.int
   Link: https://www.who.int/news/item/04-09-2024-who-launches-global-framework-for-understanding-the-origins-of-new-or-re-emerging-pathogens
   Source snippet

   World Health OrganizationWHO launches global framework for understanding the...4 Sept 2024 — The World Health Organization (WHO) has pub...

9. Source: who.int
   Title: final joint report origins studies 6 april 201
   Link: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/final-joint-report_origins-studies-6-april-201.pdf
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   WHO-convened Global Study of Origins of SARS-CoV-2by WHO Joint · 2021 · Cited by 3 — Evidence from surveys and targeted studies so far ha...

10. Source: sciencedirect.com
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    A replication study of Johnson and Seifert's (1994)...by V Laurent · 2023 · Cited by 5 — The term “Continued Influence Effect” (CIE) (Jo...

11. Source: nejm.org
    Link: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2305081
    Source snippet

    New England Journal of MedicineThe Origins of Covid-19 — Why It Matters (and...by LO Gostin · 2023 · Cited by 80 — The two major hypothe...

Additional References

1. Source: dni.gov
   Link: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Declassified-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf
   Source snippet

   Updated Assessment on COVID-19 OriginsThe IC assesses that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, probably emerged and infected huma...

2. Source: scispace.com
   Link: [https://scispace.com/pdf/the-continued-influence-of-misinformation-in-memory
   Source snippet

   The continued influence of misinformation in memoryYet despite these factors, the misinformation continues to influence later judgments a...

3. Source: today.ucsd.edu
   Link: https://today.ucsd.edu/story/recent-pandemic-viruses-jumped-to-humans-without-prior-adaptation-uc-san-diego-study-finds
   Source snippet

   Pandemic Viruses Jumped to Humans Without Prior...9 Mar 2026 — For certain viruses, researchers found no evidence that they evolved spec...

4. Source: middleeasthealth.com
   Link: https://middleeasthealth.com/covid-19-update/who-scientific-panel-concludes-natural-spillover-most-likely-origin-of-covid-19-but-laboratory-leak-cannot-be-ruled-out/
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   WHO scientific panel concludes natural spillover most...Aug 6, 2025 — The assessment highlights compelling metagenomic evidence from the...

5. Source: researchgate.net
   Link: [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/391015007To_be_continued_misinformation%27s_bizarre_adventure_beyond_memory_failures-exploring_non-memory-based_mechanisms_driving_the_continued_influence_effect_CIE](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/391015007_To_be_continued_misinformation%27s_bizarre_adventure_beyond_memory_failures-_exploring_non-memory-based_mechanisms_driving_the_continued_influence_effect_CIE)
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   (PDF) To be continued: misinformation's bizarre adventure...18 Nov 2025 — The Continued Influence Effect (CIE) refers to the persistent...

6. Source: brod.ntcenter.bg
   Link: https://brod.ntcenter.bg/en/continued-influence-effect/
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   Influence EffectThe "Continued Influence Effect" refers to the phenomenon where misinformation continues to affect people's thinking and...

7. Source: GOV.UK
   Title: uk government approach to implementing the strategy england only
   Link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pandemic-preparedness-strategy-building-our-capabilities/uk-government-approach-to-implementing-the-strategy-england-only
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   government approach to implementing the strategy...25 Mar 2026 — The UK government has learned crucial lessons from COVID-19. These have...

8. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Title: Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-Co V
   Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9420317/
   Source snippet

   updated review of the scientific literature on the origin of...by JL Domingo · 2022 · Cited by 39 — Based on the information here review...

9. Source: fao.org
   Link: https://www.fao.org/one-health/highlights/understanding-the-origins-of-zoonotic-threats/en
   Source snippet

   an animal host into a human population.Read more...

10. Source: Wikipedia
    Title: Zoonotic origins of COVID 19
    Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonotic_origins_of_COVID-19
    Source snippet

    Zoonotic origins of COVID-19SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, was first introduced to humans through zoonosis and a zoonoti...