When Should We Trust Witness Confidence?

Introduction

Courts and juries often assume that a confident eyewitness is probably right. That belief is partly true and partly misleading. Research over the past several decades shows that witness confidence can provide useful information about accuracy, but only under specific conditions. The crucial question is not simply how certain a witness sounds. It is when that confidence was measured, how the identification procedure was conducted, and whether the witness’s memory was later exposed to contamination. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and…by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts…

This distinction matters because confidence is highly persuasive. Jurors tend to trust witnesses who appear certain, even when that certainty has grown after police interactions, repeated questioning, media exposure, or courtroom preparation. Modern eyewitness research increasingly argues that an initial confidence statement collected immediately after a fair identification procedure can be informative, while confidence expressed months later may reflect influences that occurred after the original memory was formed. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and…by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts… [Association for Psychological Science]psychologicalscience.orgeyewitness confidence can predict accuracy of identifications researchers findAssociation for Psychological ScienceEyewitness Confidence Can Predict Accuracy of…31 Mar 2017 — Confidence is only informative at the…

Early Confidence Versus Courtroom Confidence

One of the most important developments in eyewitness research is the distinction between initial confidence and later confidence.

For many years, psychologists reported only a weak overall relationship between confidence and accuracy. This finding helped create the widespread belief that witness certainty is largely meaningless. More recent analyses, however, found that the picture changes when confidence is measured immediately after an identification and before contamination occurs. Under those conditions, highly confident identifications are often substantially more accurate than low-confidence identifications. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and…by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts… [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and…by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts…

Researchers such as John Wixted and Gary Wells argue that earlier studies often mixed together very different situations. Some witnesses had been exposed to suggestive procedures, confirming feedback, repeated questioning, or other influences before their confidence was assessed. When researchers isolate the witness’s first confidence judgment, the confidence–accuracy relationship becomes much stronger. PubMed [Sage Journals]journals.sagepub.comSage Journals A New SynthesisWixted, Gary L. Wells, 2017by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 830 — An investigation of the weapon focus effect and the confidence–accuracy r…

The timing issue explains why courtroom confidence can be misleading. Criminal cases often reach trial months or years after the original event. During that period, witnesses may:

Each of these experiences can alter confidence without necessarily improving accuracy. By the time a witness testifies, their certainty may be very different from what it was during the first identification. The National Academies report on eyewitness identification noted that courtroom confidence often diverges substantially from the witness’s original confidence level and can be inflated by factors unrelated to memory accuracy. [National Academies]nationalacademies.orgNational AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification…Expressions of confidence in the courtroom often deviat…

The practical lesson is simple: a witness who says “I’m absolutely certain” at trial is not providing the same kind of information as a witness who expressed high confidence immediately after a properly conducted lineup.

Fair Lineup Conditions That Matter

Confidence is most useful when it comes from what researchers sometimes call a “pristine” identification procedure. In these situations, confidence reflects the witness’s memory more than outside influences. [Sage Journals]journals.sagepub.comSage Journals A New SynthesisWixted, Gary L. Wells, 2017by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 830 — An investigation of the weapon focus effect and the confidence–accuracy r…

Several procedural safeguards are especially important.

Blind Administration

The officer conducting the lineup should not know which person is the suspect. This prevents conscious or unconscious cues from steering the witness toward a particular choice. The National Academies and other reform efforts have repeatedly recommended blind lineup administration for this reason. [Judicature]judicature.duke.eduJudicatureA Clearer View: The Impact of the National Academy of…These recommendations were: (1) training all law enforcement officers…

Fair Lineup Construction

A suspect should not stand out from the other people shown in the lineup. If one person uniquely matches the witness’s description, confidence becomes harder to interpret because the procedure itself may be biased. Research finds that confidence is more informative when witnesses identify someone from a fair lineup rather than from a suggestive one. [PNAS]pnas.orgPNASEstimating the reliability of eyewitness identifications from…Our findings suggest that (i) confidence in an eyewitness identifica…

Immediate Confidence Statements

Best-practice recommendations emphasise recording the witness’s confidence immediately after the identification decision. This captures the witness’s original level of certainty before outside influences can alter it. Many experts consider this step essential because later confidence reports are more vulnerable to contamination. [Judicature]judicature.duke.eduJudicatureA Clearer View: The Impact of the National Academy of…These recommendations were: (1) training all law enforcement officers… [ScienceDirect]sciencedirect.comScienceDirectImproving the diagnostic value of lineup rejectionsby TM Seale-Carlisle · 2024 · Cited by 4 — Research shows that eyewitness…

Proper Witness Instructions

Witnesses should be told that the perpetrator may or may not be present in the lineup. Without this warning, some people feel pressured to choose someone even when they are unsure. Proper instructions reduce false identifications and make confidence judgments easier to interpret. [Judicature]judicature.duke.eduJudicatureA Clearer View: The Impact of the National Academy of…These recommendations were: (1) training all law enforcement officers…

When these safeguards are used together, high initial confidence can become a meaningful indicator of accuracy. This does not mean every confident witness is correct. It means that confidence contains useful information when collected under conditions designed to protect memory from distortion. PubMed [PNAS]pnas.orgPNASEstimating the reliability of eyewitness identifications from…Our findings suggest that (i) confidence in an eyewitness identifica…

How Feedback Can Inflate Certainty

A major reason confidence can mislead is that people often become more certain without becoming more accurate.

One of the best-known demonstrations came from research on confirming feedback. In these studies, witnesses made an identification and then received comments suggesting they had chosen correctly. Even simple statements such as “Good, you identified the suspect” could increase confidence dramatically. After receiving confirmation, witnesses often reported that they had always been highly certain, had paid close attention during the event, and had a clear view of the perpetrator. [Cambridge University Press & Assessment]resolve.cambridge.orgCambridge University Press & Assessment16 Eyewitness identification confidenceFurthermore, our discussion is restricted to forensically r…

This effect is powerful because it changes not only present confidence but also a person’s memory of their earlier confidence. A witness may sincerely believe they were certain from the beginning even when the original record shows hesitation.

Repeated questioning can have similar effects. Each retelling encourages witnesses to reconstruct the event again. Over time, the story may become smoother and more coherent. Jurors often interpret this fluency as evidence of accuracy, but fluency can result from repetition rather than truth. [National Academies]nationalacademies.orgNational AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification…Expressions of confidence in the courtroom often deviat…

Confidence can also rise because of social pressures. If investigators, prosecutors, family members, or journalists signal that a witness played an important role in solving a case, certainty may increase even when the underlying memory remains unchanged. The witness is not necessarily being dishonest. Rather, normal psychological processes can make a reconstructed memory feel increasingly convincing. [National Academies]nationalacademies.orgNational AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification…Expressions of confidence in the courtroom often deviat…

Why the Debate Is More Nuanced Than “Confidence Doesn’t Matter”

Modern eyewitness research has moved away from two extreme positions.

The older popular belief was that confident witnesses are usually correct. The later reaction was that confidence tells us almost nothing about accuracy. Increasingly, researchers argue that both claims are oversimplified. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and…by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts…

A growing body of evidence suggests that high confidence can be strongly associated with accuracy when:

• The identification is the witness’s first memory test.
• The lineup is fair. [pnas.org]pnas.orgPNASEstimating the reliability of eyewitness identifications from…Our findings suggest that (i) confidence in an eyewitness identifica…
• The procedure is free from administrator influence.
• Confidence is recorded immediately.
• The witness positively identifies someone rather than simply rejecting a lineup. [PMC]pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPMCWhy eyewitnesses failPMC - NIHby TD Albright · 2017 · Cited by 133 — This National Academy of Sciences consensus report upon… eyewitness confidence reliabl… [ScienceDirect At the same time]sciencedirect.comScienceDirectImproving the diagnostic value of lineup rejectionsby TM Seale-Carlisle · 2024 · Cited by 4 — Research shows that eyewitness…, researchers continue to debate how well this relationship holds under difficult viewing conditions, cross-racial identifications, high stress, long delays, and other real-world complications. Some recent studies caution that even highly confident initial identifications can contain meaningful error rates, especially when witnessing conditions are poor. [University of Utah Psychology Department]psych.utah.edumore…

The most defensible conclusion is not that confidence should be ignored, nor that it should be accepted at face value. Confidence is evidence about memory, but it is evidence that must be interpreted in context.

What Jurors and Investigators Often Miss

The central misconception is treating confidence as a stable property of a memory. In reality, confidence is itself influenced by experience.

A witness who immediately says, “I’m fairly sure that’s him,” may later become completely certain. Another witness who begins with high confidence may lose confidence after learning new information. The confidence observed in court is therefore not necessarily the confidence that existed when the memory was freshest. [National Academies]nationalacademies.orgNational AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification…Expressions of confidence in the courtroom often deviat…

For that reason, many reform proposals focus less on whether a witness is confident and more on documenting the original confidence statement. Recording the first identification, preserving exact confidence ratings, and using fair lineup procedures allow courts to evaluate confidence in the context where it is most informative. [Judicature]judicature.duke.eduJudicatureA Clearer View: The Impact of the National Academy of…These recommendations were: (1) training all law enforcement officers… [National]nationalacademies.orgNational AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification…Expressions of confidence in the courtroom often deviat…

The key question is no longer “How confident is the witness?” but “How confident was the witness at the moment of the first uncontaminated identification?” Research suggests that the answer to that second question is often far more useful. [PubMed]pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and…by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts… [Association for Psychological Science]psychologicalscience.orgeyewitness confidence can predict accuracy of identifications researchers findAssociation for Psychological ScienceEyewitness Confidence Can Predict Accuracy of…31 Mar 2017 — Confidence is only informative at the…

Amazon book picks

Further Reading

Books and field guides related to When Should We Trust Witness Confidence?. Use these as the next step if you want deeper reading beyond the article.

Book

Eyewitness Testimony

By Elizabeth F. Loftus, James M. Doyle

Directly addresses confidence, accuracy, and eyewitness evidence.

See on Amazon

Book

Witness for the Defense

By Elizabeth F. Loftus, Katherine Ketcham

Examines courtroom confidence and memory reliability.

See on Amazon

Book

The Seven Sins of Memory

By Daniel L. Schacter

Rating: 3.5/5 from 5 Google Books ratings

Explains memory distortions that affect witnesses.

See on Amazon

Book

Thinking, Fast and Slow

By Daniel Kahneman

Explains overconfidence and judgment errors relevant to witnesses.

See on Amazon

Browse more on Amazon: Eyewitness Testimony Witness for the Defense The Seven Sins of Memory

As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.

eBay marketplace picks

Marketplace Samples

Example marketplace items related to this page. Use the search link to explore similar finds on eBay.

Shop location

Using USA USA USAUKCanadaAustraliaIreland

Example eBay listing

Periodic Table Of The Elements Science Education Poster For Students A4 A3 A2 A1

Search eBay.co.uk: science education poster

Browse similar on eBay.co.uk

Example eBay listing

Periodic Table Of Elements Science Education Poster A3 - FREE NEXT DAY DELIVERY

Search eBay.co.uk: science education poster

Browse similar on eBay.co.uk

Example eBay listing

Periodic Table Of Elements Science Education Poster A3 - FREE NEXT DAY DELIVERY

Search eBay.co.uk: science education poster

Browse similar on eBay.co.uk

Example eBay listing

Human Muscular System Body Educational Poster Skeletal Nervous Anatomy Chart

Search eBay.co.uk: science education poster

Browse similar on eBay.co.uk

Browse more on eBay.co.uk

Example items shown for inspiration; availability and pricing can change. Branchoria may earn a commission if you purchase through outbound eBay links.

Endnotes

1. Source: pnas.org
   Link: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1516814112
   Source snippet

   PNASEstimating the reliability of eyewitness identifications from...Our findings suggest that (i) confidence in an eyewitness identifica...

2. Source: sciencedirect.com
   Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010027724002038
   Source snippet

   ScienceDirectImproving the diagnostic value of lineup rejectionsby TM Seale-Carlisle · 2024 · Cited by 4 — Research shows that eyewitness...

3. Source: resolve.cambridge.org
   Link: https://resolve.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/78721D9313DCB76A146034D8014AF911/9780511759192c16_p348-361_CBO.pdf/eyewitness_identification_confidence.pdf
   Source snippet

   Cambridge University Press & Assessment16 Eyewitness identification confidenceFurthermore, our discussion is restricted to forensically r...

4. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Title: PMCWhy eyewitnesses fail
   Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5544328/
   Source snippet

   PMC - NIHby TD Albright · 2017 · Cited by 133 — This National Academy of Sciences consensus report upon... eyewitness confidence reliabl...

5. Source: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
   Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10089327/
   Source snippet

   PMCThe confidence-accuracy relationship for lineup decisions...by M Sauerland · 2023 · Cited by 2 — The post-decision confidence-accurac...

6. Source: psych.utah.edu
   Link: https://psych.utah.edu/_resources/documents/people/committee-docs/fall-2025/2024%20-%20Moore%20et%20al%202024%20Eyewitness%20Confidence%20Does%20Not%20Necessarily%20Indicate%20Accuracy.pdf
   Source snippet

   more...

7. Source: sciencedirect.com
   Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364661325000270
   Source snippet

   The cognitive science of eyewitness memoryby L Mickes · 2025 · Cited by 17 — Using this new approach, it became clear that the confidence...

8. Source: sciencedirect.com
   Title: We tested whether a new techn
   Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211368119301561
   Source snippet

   Confidence and Response Time as Indicators of...by TM Seale-Carlisle · 2019 · Cited by 72 — However, just as high confidence identificat...

9. Source: sciencedirect.com
   Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749596X24000846
   Source snippet

   Response bias changes more across confidence than across instruction...Read mo...

10. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28395650/
    Source snippet

    PubMedThe Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and...by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 805 — The US legal system increasingly accepts...

11. Source: nationalacademies.org
    Link: https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/18891/chapter/8
    Source snippet

    National AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification...Expressions of confidence in the courtroom often deviat...

12. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26348334/
    Source snippet

    PubMedInitial eyewitness confidence reliably predicts...by JT Wixted · 2015 · Cited by 289 — A considerable body of recent empirical wor...

13. Source: psychologicalscience.org
    Title: eyewitness confidence can predict accuracy of identifications researchers find
    Link: https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/eyewitness-confidence-can-predict-accuracy-of-identifications-researchers-find
    Source snippet

    Association for Psychological ScienceEyewitness Confidence Can Predict Accuracy of...31 Mar 2017 — Confidence is only informative at the...

14. Source: journals.sagepub.com
    Title: Sage Journals A New Synthesis
    Link: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1529100616686966
    Source snippet

    Wixted, Gary L. Wells, 2017by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 830 — An investigation of the weapon focus effect and the confidence–accuracy r...

15. Source: nationalacademies.org
    Link: https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/18891/chapter/2
    Source snippet

    National AcademiesIdentifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification...For several decades, scientists have conducted research...

16. Source: judicature.duke.edu
    Link: https://judicature.duke.edu/articles/a-clearer-view-the-impact-of-the-national-academy-of-sciences-report-on-eyewitness-identification/

17. Source: nationalacademies.org
    Link: https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/report-urges-caution-in-handling-and-relying-upon-eyewitness-identifications-in-criminal-cases-recommends-best-practices-for-law-enforcement-and-courts
    Source snippet

    Report Urges Caution in Handling and Relying Upon...2 Oct 2014 — To increase the likelihood of accuracy in eyewitness identifications, t...

18. Source: judicature.duke.edu
    Link: https://judicature.duke.edu/articles/distinguishing-between-reliable-and-unreliable-eyewitnesses/
    Source snippet

    JudicatureDistinguishing Between Reliable and Unreliable EyewitnessesIncreasing research shows that eyewitness confidence at the time of...

19. Source: nationalacademies.org
    Link: https://www.nationalacademies.org/read/18891
    Source snippet

    Identifying the Culprit: Assessing Eyewitness Identification...Research of this category identifies principled and insurmountable limits...

20. Source: nationalacademies.org
    Title: using science to improve eyewitness testimony
    Link: https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/using-science-to-improve-eyewitness-testimony
    Source snippet

    24 Jan 2020 — Five years after a landmark National Academies report on eyewitness identification, a lead author reflects on its impact.Re...

21. Source: jstor.org
    Link: https://www.jstor.org/stable/44653380
    Source snippet

    The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and...by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 804 — We go on to demonstrate that the confidence- a...

22. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36757968/
    Source snippet

    confidence and decision time reflect...by A Quigley-McBride · 2023 · Cited by 49 — In two experiments, we examined confidence and decisi...

23. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38852371/
    Source snippet

    moderate-confidence eyewitness identificationsby TC Lebensfeld · 2024 · Cited by 7 — Recent research on the eyewitness confidence-accurac...

24. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16536656/
    Source snippet

    of lineup instructions, foil similarity, and target-...by N Brewer · 2006 · Cited by 671 — This study examined whether eyewitness confid...

25. Source: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
    Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29716454/
    Source snippet

    the Reliability of Eyewitness MemoryEyewitnesses typically provide reliable evidence on an initial, uncontaminated memory test, and this...

26. Source: nationalcar.com
    Link: https://www.nationalcar.com/en/home.html
    Source snippet

    National Car Rental: Fast & Convenient Car Rental at 1500+...National Car Rental has worldwide locations in the United States, Canada, E...

Additional References

1. Source: researchgate.net
   Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283506350_Confidence_and_Accuracy_of_Eyewitness_Identification
   Source snippet

   (PDF) Confidence and Accuracy of Eyewitness IdentificationThis chapter discusses perceptions of the confidence-accuracy (CA) relationship...

2. Source: researchgate.net
   Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326123552_The_Role_of_Estimator_Variables_in_Eyewitness_Identification
   Source snippet

   The Role of Estimator Variables in Eyewitness IdentificationEstimator variables are factors that can affect the accuracy of eyewitness id...

3. Source: ovid.com
   Title: a0039510~initial eyewitness confidence reliably predicts eyewitness
   Link: https://www.ovid.com/journals/ampsy/pdf/10.1037/a0039510~initial-eyewitness-confidence-reliably-predicts-eyewitness
   Source snippet

   Initial Eyewitness Confidence Reliably Predicts...by JT Wixted · 2015 · Cited by 295 — A considerable body of recent empirical work sugg...

4. Source: web.williams.edu
   Title: Wixted & Wells (2017) Eyewitness accuracy and confidence
   Link: https://web.williams.edu/Psychology/Faculty/Kassin/files/Wixted%20%26%20Wells%20%282017%29%20-%20Eyewitness%20accuracy%20and%20confidence.pdf
   Source snippet

   Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and...by JT Wixted · 2017 · Cited by 807 — Guilbert (2012): “Courts across the country now ac...

5. Source: youtube.com
   Title: Memory: L9
   Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jx58TU_Rf04
   Source snippet

   Eyewitness memory confidence accuracy relationship Eyewitness Memory Crisis: Why Confidence ≠ Accuracy Forensics and Psychology...

6. Source: researchgate.net
   Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/315525817_The_Relationship_Between_Eyewitness_Confidence_and_Identification_Accuracy_A_New_Synthesis
   Source snippet

   September 2015 · American Psychologist. John T. Wixted · Laura...Read more...

   Published: September 2015

7. Source: archive.legmt.gov
   Link: https://archive.legmt.gov/content/Committees/Interim/2015-2016/Law-and-Justice/Meetings/Sept-2015/Exhibits/eyewitness-nas-recommendations-summary.pdf
   Source snippet

   the Culprit, Assessing Eyewitness IdentificationFor several decades, scientists have conducted research on the factors that affect the ac...

8. Source: youtube.com
   Title: Confident Witness = Reliable?! 🤯 Think Again! (Memory LIES with Style) 🧠⚖️
   Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgr9EDPPaMU
   Source snippet

   Memory: L9 - Improving the Accuracy of Eyewitness Testimony - Cognitive Interview...

9. Source: today.ucsd.edu
   Link: https://today.ucsd.edu/story/confidence_counts_accuracy_of_eyewitness_ids_increases_with_degree_of_certa
   Source snippet

   Counts: Accuracy of Eyewitness IDs Increases...21 Dec 2015 — The study estimates the accuracy of suspect identification using two distin...

10. Source: nature.com
    Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-96224-y
    Source snippet

    Comparing the strength of the confidence-accuracy versus...by CA Carlson · 2025 · Cited by 7 — Research indicates that eyewitness identi...